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Predict Diabetes

Predict high-risk diabetes patients for early intervention, reducing complications and costs.

Problem

Diabetes is a chronic disease that occurs either when the pancreas does not produce enough insulin or when the body cannot effectively use the insulin it produces. Insulin is a hormone that regulates blood glucose. Hyperglycaemia, also called raised blood glucose or raised blood sugar, is a common effect of uncontrolled diabetes and over time leads to serious damage to many of the body's systems, especially the nerves and blood vessels.

Why it matters

  • More than 4000 Americans are diagnosed with diabetes every day (1).
  • 88 million Americans have prediabetes (1).
  • 2.3x higher average medical expenditures for people with diabetes (3).

Diabetes affects approximately 34 million adults—more than 10% of Americans—and is the seventh leading cause of death in the United States (1). Uncontrolled diabetes can lead to biochemical imbalances that cause acute life-threatening events and hospitalization (2). Potential complications include significantly increased risk of heart attacks, strokes, kidney failure, lower-limb amputations, and adult blindness. Diabetes is also steadily becoming more common; in the last 20 years, the number of adults diagnosed with diabetes has more than doubled (1). But despite its increasing prevalence, more than one in five people with diabetes are estimated to be undiagnosed and unaware of their condition (1).Diabetes is also responsible for exorbitant expenditures with a total estimated cost of $327 billion (3). On average, people with diagnosed diabetes incur medical expenditures of $16,752 per year, approximately $9,601 of which is attributed to diabetes.

Solution

To improve health outcomes and combat costs, providers can leverage predictive analytics to proactively identify patients at high risk for diabetes and patients likely to experience severe complications. This insight can enable cost-effective, proven interventions. Enrollment in comprehensive prevention programs can reduce risk of type 2 diabetes by more than 50%, and interventions based on diabetes self-management education are extremely cost-effective ($5,047/QALY)* compared to routine care (4,5).

Diabetes interventions based on self-management can empower people to dramatically impact their own health (6). Self-monitoring of blood sugar to achieve glycemic control can reduce the risk of eye disease, kidney disease, and nerve disease by 40% (4). Other self-management interventions include adherence to healthy dietary practices and engaging in regular exercise. Additionally, strengthening primary care continuity is critical. Health care services that include regular foot exams can prevent up to 85% of diabetes-related amputations, and regular eye exams can prevent up to 90% of diabetes-related blindness (7,8).


Datasources

  • Electronic Health Records: EHR data with comprehensive patient histories of vital signs and symptoms, problem lists and chief complaints, tests results, diagnoses and procedures, and prescriptions.
  • Medical Claims: Data extracted from health insurance medical claims with details about dates and place of service, diagnosis codes, key procedures, use of medical equipment, and provider specialties.
  • Social Determinants of Health (SDoH): Geo-centric data with details about the social and environmental influences on people's health and outcomes.

Citations

  1. CDC. “National Diabetes Statistics Report, 2020." U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 18 Feb. 2020.
  2. Kim, Sunny. “Burden of Hospitalizations Primarily Due to Uncontrolled Diabetes.” American Diabetes Association, vol. 30, no. 5, May 2007, pp. 1281-1282, doi.org/10.2337/dc06-2070.
  3. American Diabetes Association. “Economic Costs of Diabetes in the U.S. in 2017” Diabetes Care, vol. 41, no. 5, 22 Mar. 2018, pp. 917-928. doi.org/10.2337/dci18-0007.
  4. CDC “Cost-Effectiveness of Diabetes Interventions.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 29 Sep. 2020, https://www.edc.gov/chronicdisease/programs-impact/pop/diabetes.htm. Accessed 12 Feb. 2021.
  5. Zhao, Xilin, et al. * Cost-effectiveness of Diabetes Prevention Interventions Targeting High-risk Individuals and Whole Populations: A Systematic Review.” American Diabetes Association: Diabetes Care, vol. 43, no. 7, Jul. 2020, pp. 1593-1616. doi.org/10.2337/dci20-0018.
  6. Shrivastava, Saurabh, et al. “Role of Self-Care in Management of Diabetes Mellitus.” Journal of Diabetes 8 Metabolic Disorders, vol. 12, no. 1, 2013, p. 14, 10.1186/2251-6581-12-14.
  7. Geiss, Linda, et al. “Resurgence of diabetes-related nontraumatic lower-extremity amputation in the young and middle-aged adult US population.” Diabetes Care, vol. 42, no. 1, Jan. 2019, pp. 50-54. doi:10.2337/dc18-1380
  8. Mitchison, Ann P,, et al. “Resurgence of diabetes-related nontraumatic lower-extremity amputation in the young and middle-aged adult US population.” British Medical Journal: Open Diabetes Research 8 Care, vol. 5, 31 Jul. 2017, no. 1, doi.org/10.1136/bmidrc-2016-000333.

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